(Listen to audio version of me reading👆)
Scary AF
The inflation hasn’t even set in yet.
As you can see below that velocity (movement of currency) is through the floor.
Or the red line shows the movement of money versus the amount of currency in circulation.
The higher it goes means more currency and less transactions.
Red line is just velocity on its own showing the cratering.
Here is Mike Maloney below showing the amount of cash in people’s accounts. I thought that no one had any money? The middle class and poor are being squeezed but there is still a ton of cash waiting to come out once the “storm clears” and Fed pivots and goes “risk on.”
This is what the bond market thinks is going to happen and how we can tell they future….The bond market is betting that there is one more rate hike of about 50-75 basis points and then the Fed will have to pivot and start dropping rates.
We cannot be certain but this is bullish for assets like stocks and bitcoin and real estate prices.
However this also means more inflation, at least asset price inflation.
Biden said there was zero inflation?
The Biden administration sneakily told you a half-truth about inflation.
The inflation rate from month to month went down a touch or stayed even, depending on the data you look at, so they claimed that inflation was 0.
This is not how everyone comes to define inflation though.
Kind of like trying to redefine how they determine a recession.
When government sucks, they just redefine life for you, because you aren’t smart enough to figure it out. This happens with ALL government. This is not specific to this administration. Some might be more egregious than others but they all suck.
We are always looking at the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from year over year. And that was still extremely high at 8.5%
Whats insane is that is not even the real inflation number. We have talked many times before about what the real inflation rate is based off how we used to calculate it in 1980 before we stripped the basket down and neutered it.
True inflation below is really around 18%. That sounds more like what we are seeing in our everyday life.
Russia and China dump the dollar
This could be another catalyst for more inflation as Russia and China leave the dollar and pick up real assets (gold/bitcoin/commodities).
They dump the dollar which will make their way back to the US and drive up the currency pool.
Prices act like a sponge and must soak up those extra currency units.
This has been happening slowly over the past 14 years since the GFC but now is really starting to speed up.
The IMF telegraphs their pass…
Financial repression is the way governments across the world will try to get out of this mess.
Austerity, raising taxes, or going to war are hard and costly.
So they will continue to print currency and let inflation run hot to bring down their debt levels through higher GDP.
If they bring in higher nominal numbers then asset price inflation goes up and they can tax more to bring down their debt levels.
Government is insidious and once again looking out for you level on a scale of 1-10…is a 0.
Don’t you worry, government is here to help!
They are hiring agents to audit and take every single dollar from you so they can pretend they are solvent and buy more votes.
This is what happens when you let government get out control, too big, and too centralized.
Point is that we need to stay alert and prepare. We have been talking about this for a while. Buy food storage, water, bitcoin, gold/silver, energy sources, security, etc..
Stay strong,
Brandon
Ps. Build community and take care of each other! We need each other more than ever. Community is the number one thing in a survival situation believe it or not. Stick close!